{ "title": "Fluidity Replication: results (2026-10-14 18:29 Halifax).", "starts": [ 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134 ], "size": 0.005, "hypothesis_1": { "gap": 0.31079927653774886, "bar": 0.01766816914173438, "lower": 0.25779476911254573, "upper": 0.34613561482121763, "threshold": 0.1, "problems": [], "verdict": "PASS", "kind": "clearly above zero and at least 0.10", "medium_share": { "mean": 0.9988167915485352, "bar": 0.0032490535108288805 }, "push_share": { "mean": 0.6880175150107863, "bar": 0.018656808789767037 }, "like_for_like": 198, "not_like_for_like": 2, "starts_without": [], "extras": { "medium": 0.029489690783604635, "push": 0.01889597193728123 } }, "hypothesis_2": { "gap": 0.24349948633870278, "bar": 0.0377414006593, "lower": 0.13027528436080277, "upper": 0.31898228765730274, "threshold": 0.1, "problems": [], "verdict": "PASS", "kind": "clearly above zero and at least 0.10", "slower": { "mean": 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"bar": 0.00045828608478683816, "n": 20, "above": 4, "clear": true } }, "(300, 400]": { "S_medium": { "mean": 0.00240023285402816, "bar": 0.0004314276765419381, "n": 20, "above": 18, "clear": true }, "P_medium": { "mean": -0.0017517345047645654, "bar": 0.0007021319166107732, "n": 20, "above": 7, "clear": false }, "S_push_sham": { "mean": 0.0023975948598154674, "bar": 0.0003533268362264951, "n": 20, "above": 19, "clear": true }, "P_push_sham": { "mean": -0.0028548285329647307, "bar": 0.0006239903652715174, "n": 20, "above": 3, "clear": true }, "S_push": { "mean": 0.0011976396351482507, "bar": 0.00030237896299911796, "n": 20, "above": 15, "clear": true }, "P_push": { "mean": -0.0011033523058876086, "bar": 0.0006114751936758191, "n": 20, "above": 8, "clear": false }, "sham_raised": { "mean": 0.002951431451744339, "bar": 0.0005954086691978234, "n": 20, "above": 17, "clear": true }, "sham_lowered": { "mean": 0.0005515210024099055, "bar": 0.00044024144616805136, "n": 20, "above": 11, "clear": false }, "sham_both": { "mean": 0.0017514762270771224, "bar": 0.00039881963364398425, "n": 20, "above": 17, "clear": true }, "D_raised": { "mean": -0.004151967358792725, "bar": 0.0008160959936222215, "n": 20, "above": 4, "clear": true }, "D_lowered": { "mean": 0.0006484983492635939, "bar": 0.000832000881017289, "n": 20, "above": 8, "clear": false }, "S_difference": { "mean": 0.0012482009085774608, "bar": 0.000413744751532288, "n": 20, "above": 14, "clear": true }, "P_difference": { "mean": -0.0006343347569225081, "bar": 0.0005732413012908057, "n": 20, "above": 8, "clear": false } }, "(400, 500]": { "S_medium": { "mean": 0.004090432854361836, "bar": 0.00042475162170598006, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true }, "P_medium": { "mean": -0.002756584726295313, "bar": 0.0008509466803559529, "n": 20, "above": 7, "clear": true }, "S_push_sham": { "mean": 0.0025128785430684154, "bar": 0.0006176490036017603, "n": 20, "above": 15, "clear": true }, "P_push_sham": { "mean": -0.002574618240065862, "bar": 0.0005830175178986517, "n": 20, "above": 4, "clear": true }, "S_push": { "mean": 0.0023292986217395375, "bar": 0.0004778492582268114, "n": 20, "above": 17, "clear": true }, "P_push": { "mean": -0.0028653057099370547, "bar": 0.0007569190022306977, "n": 20, "above": 4, "clear": true }, "sham_raised": { "mean": -0.00010710754854231482, "bar": 0.0009958277146404296, "n": 20, "above": 11, "clear": false }, "sham_lowered": { "mean": -0.00047426739120007104, "bar": 0.0007612041667713575, "n": 20, "above": 9, "clear": false }, "sham_both": { "mean": -0.0002906874698711928, "bar": 0.0007418361497288568, "n": 20, "above": 10, "clear": false }, "D_raised": { "mean": -0.006847017580657149, "bar": 0.000978828275236738, "n": 20, "above": 2, "clear": true }, "D_lowered": { "mean": 0.0013338481280665234, "bar": 0.0009337075978219312, "n": 20, "above": 13, "clear": false }, "S_difference": { "mean": 0.0017928631731861447, "bar": 0.000496438859349479, "n": 20, "above": 15, "clear": true }, "P_difference": { "mean": -2.6016541982803336e-05, "bar": 0.00066713938731652, "n": 20, "above": 10, "clear": false } } }, "during": { "S_medium": { "mean": -0.007263391588433146, "bar": 0.0002385692690185906, "n": 20, "above": 0, "clear": true }, "P_medium": { "mean": 0.002898986458279614, "bar": 0.00031400924250253457, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true } }, "persistence": { "medium": { "mean": 0.378366926972215, "bar": 0.021617889550206874, "n": 20, "clear": true }, "push": { "mean": 0.32447618404774853, "bar": 0.01993809604369238, "n": 20, "clear": true }, "difference": { "mean": 0.05389074292446647, "bar": 0.027078022390820706, "n": 20, "clear": false }, "medium_all_moments": { "mean": 0.3812123050263051, "bar": 0.021517908590110893, "n": 20, "clear": true } }, "lasting": { "medium_last": { "mean": 0.005737443986516408, "bar": 0.0006261644719030011, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true }, "medium_decline": { "mean": 0.008337139383673784, "bar": 0.0005941698729442283, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true }, "push_decline": { "mean": 0.005680849945363156, "bar": 0.0008276577315858673, "n": 20, "above": 18, "clear": true }, "switch": false }, "curves": { "medium raised": [ 0.004544330828986589, 0.014932181130739505, 0.016193798639586192, 0.012049964346454356, 0.00892447287513127, 0.006014577409720786, 0.0031940436002715457 ], "push raised": [ 0.013583717616749461, 0.011049363013457391, 0.009015290571074638, 0.006193566079368042, 0.003849466444005934 ], "sham raised": [ 0.0005620078881804615, 0.0014254277011578457, 0.0025720197152199445, 0.002462397603979669, 0.0012441966586276795 ], "medium lowered": [ -0.0030710313148796554, -0.006224809961234862, -0.006928119797257483, -0.006105760605622947, -0.005105912680134742, -0.00427827707878436, -0.002502217280239261 ], "push lowered": [ -0.004074646530196139, -0.003500592918766297, -0.0024652521767146687, -0.0023895292526690637, -0.0019502263584202178 ], "sham lowered": [ 0.00019106749313944603, 0.00034318585407507496, 0.00048709045323338477, 0.000365272318580255, -0.0004978346454953693 ] }, "shapes": { "medium": "same direction", "push_sham": "non-monotonic", "push_untouched": "mixed" }, "readings": { "medium_shape": "same direction", "medium_ruled_out": false, "medium_unresolved": false, "push_shape_vs_sham": "non-monotonic", "push_shape_vs_untouched": "mixed", "push_inconclusive": false, "differs": true, "like_push": false, "lasting_switch": false }, "patterns": [ "differs", "same direction" ], "descriptions": { "distance": { "raised": { "mean": 0.7046916001670545, "bar": 0.01834194622861092, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true }, "lowered": { "mean": 0.41921420656389213, "bar": 0.012916658277977732, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true } }, "delivered": { "raised": 0.06589553959316773, "lowered": 0.038561804019119156 }, "states": { "untouched": { "R": 0.02389587303073117, "inner": 0.04639586698797489, "outer": 0.019186194357593413, "z2": 0.011585084255360967, "z3": 0.012745049469651201, "z4": 0.012436972530642618, "C": 0.02389587303073117, "ab": 0.8389274994124195 }, "medium raised": { "R": 0.04332931532093539, "inner": 0.08961787098822406, "outer": 0.019312253922970254, "z2": 0.01181438038768924, "z3": 0.012505659754393541, "z4": 0.012621775627833075, "C": 0.04332931532093539, "ab": 0.47134076137116737 }, "medium lowered": { "R": 0.017080161827835262, "inner": 0.031210780590134803, "outer": 0.019235145498979648, "z2": 0.011583481771493914, "z3": 0.012718034274246129, "z4": 0.012775525648420138, "C": 0.017080161827835262, "ab": 1.2312387958141293 }, "push raised": { "R": 0.04363953849660228, "inner": 0.06565400355525304, "outer": 0.03267974399622885, "z2": 0.01211168907957344, "z3": 0.012797175611802195, "z4": 0.012461356443217027, "C": 0.04363953849660228, "ab": 0.8409733465134641 }, "push lowered": { "R": 0.017070222417348367, "inner": 0.039652484243249464, "outer": 0.020889319433669958, "z2": 0.011594247218199365, "z3": 0.012803314400468429, "z4": 0.012443143567594423, "C": 0.017070222417348367, "ab": 0.8419321805572766 }, "sham raised": { "R": 0.023929000436209873, "inner": 0.04656355393746087, "outer": 0.019183711431138093, "z2": 0.011875956859812489, "z3": 0.012788403011725857, "z4": 0.012346457830263448, "C": 0.023929000436209873, "ab": 0.8417705458788127 }, "sham lowered": { "R": 0.02393180161161922, "inner": 0.04657325599505415, "outer": 0.019164072301605835, "z2": 0.01166039314323496, "z3": 0.012834051380898801, "z4": 0.012458072700167168, "C": 0.02393180161161922, "ab": 0.8413775959130723 } } }, "checks": { "restored": true, "medium_finite": true, "built": { "raised": 198, "lowered": 200 }, "both": 198, "missing": 2, "push_ok": true, "built_checks": true, "not_built": [ "start 124, moment 9, raised: group A: no move up to a quarter turn reaches 0.033 x R", "start 126, moment 7, raised: sham outside its band (1.0000, 1.0507 x R)" ] } }, "secondary_beside_pilot": [ { "name": "the medium's S (later growth against untouched)", "replication": { "mean": 0.0023766527935572606, "bar": 0.00030023714798755447, "n": 20, "above": 18, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.003032658255659119, "bar": 0.00036127687200801495, "n": 12, "above": 12, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "the medium's P", "replication": { "mean": -0.0021244307448081414, "bar": 0.0006541169761122126, "n": 20, "above": 6, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": -0.002373559250449083, "bar": 0.0006954212768894285, "n": 12, "above": 2, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "D_raised", "replication": { "mean": -0.004501083538365402, "bar": 0.0007808811051055886, "n": 20, "above": 3, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": -0.005406217506108202, "bar": 0.0008840926791989212, "n": 12, "above": 0, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "D_lowered", "replication": { "mean": 0.00025222204874911973, "bar": 0.0006528762720675687, "n": 20, "above": 10, "clear": false }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.0006590990052100363, "bar": 0.0006683139949033772, "n": 12, "above": 8, "clear": false }, "described": "same sign, not clear" }, { "name": "the pushes against their shams: S", "replication": { "mean": 0.002012158344969436, "bar": 0.00027462822586207656, "n": 20, "above": 19, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.0018600109981077855, "bar": 0.0007017856865431662, "n": 12, "above": 10, "clear": false }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "the pushes against their shams: P", "replication": { "mean": -0.0024505674527349913, "bar": 0.00046784280845406557, "n": 20, "above": 2, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": -0.0026494259093314365, "bar": 0.00038152036124976566, "n": 12, "above": 0, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "the pushes against untouched: S", "replication": { "mean": 0.0012337398279789577, "bar": 0.0002812759725040368, "n": 20, "above": 17, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.0012724278592553427, "bar": 0.0004980030538988254, "n": 12, "above": 9, "clear": false }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "the pushes against untouched: P", "replication": { "mean": -0.0014033842103784266, "bar": 0.0005520066857456843, "n": 20, "above": 4, "clear": false }, "pilot": { "mean": -0.0011454676848893202, "bar": 0.000451994014037489, "n": 12, "above": 2, "clear": false }, "described": "same sign, not clear" }, { "name": "the shams against untouched, raised", "replication": { "mean": 0.0018256017593470428, "bar": 0.0004956808209434687, "n": 20, "above": 15, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.002091541363294559, "bar": 0.0005164617884022124, "n": 12, "above": 11, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "the shams against untouched, lowered", "replication": { "mean": 0.0002687647253660875, "bar": 0.00041945603180339555, "n": 20, "above": 11, "clear": false }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.0009163750855896731, "bar": 0.0005066362960119448, "n": 12, "above": 9, "clear": false }, "described": "same sign, not clear" }, { "name": "medium minus push, like for like: S difference", "replication": { "mean": 0.0011721991041796231, "bar": 0.0003152519520016415, "n": 20, "above": 15, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.0018053071544303608, "bar": 0.0005061383131532757, "n": 12, "above": 10, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "medium minus push, like for like: P difference", "replication": { "mean": -0.0007631121976876731, "bar": 0.00035072106559180463, "n": 20, "above": 6, "clear": false }, "pilot": { "mean": -0.0012579406179943598, "bar": 0.00039986799606557956, "n": 12, "above": 2, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign, not clear" }, { "name": "persistence over (R + 200, R + 500]: medium", "replication": { "mean": 0.378366926972215, "bar": 0.021617889550206874, "n": 20, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.3499627518258363, "bar": 0.0178319597823896, "n": 12, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "persistence: push", "replication": { "mean": 0.32447618404774853, "bar": 0.01993809604369238, "n": 20, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.2981454045214018, "bar": 0.03147360713065323, "n": 12, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "persistence: difference (medium minus push)", "replication": { "mean": 0.05389074292446647, "bar": 0.027078022390820706, "n": 20, "clear": false }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.05181734730443456, "bar": 0.03232110902402416, "n": 12, "clear": false }, "described": "same sign, not clear" }, { "name": "lasting: the medium's last block", "replication": { "mean": 0.005737443986516408, "bar": 0.0006261644719030011, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.006960507893279053, "bar": 0.0006631664951071138, "n": 12, "above": 12, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "lasting: the medium's decline", "replication": { "mean": 0.008337139383673784, "bar": 0.0005941698729442283, "n": 20, "above": 20, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.006645290141120583, "bar": 0.0009868849602910265, "n": 12, "above": 11, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" }, { "name": "lasting: the push's decline", "replication": { "mean": 0.005680849945363156, "bar": 0.0008276577315858673, "n": 20, "above": 18, "clear": true }, "pilot": { "mean": 0.004709426317297138, "bar": 0.0007997614343601324, "n": 12, "above": 12, "clear": true }, "described": "same sign and clear" } ], "exploratory": [ { "block": "(R+0, R+100]", "route_difference": { "mean": 0.21033150209612228, "bar": 0.024163043930445088, "n": 20, "clear": true }, "starts": 20, "medium": 0.8749464321310878, "push": 0.6646149300295222, "reweighted_push": 2.493986835407669, "closed": 8.697564972910113, "slower_kept_medium": 0.8762530981089065, "slower_kept_push": 1.4847084456029305, "slower_kept_difference": -0.608455347494024, "kept_medium": [ 0.8762530981089065, 0.894068040712526, 0.7937294187894968 ], "kept_push": [ 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Report operational progress only until all tasks are complete, then generate the full report once.\n\nNo early inspection of experimental outcomes, no adjustments based on emerging results, no website changes, and no publication.\n\nPreserve the original Cause Test FAIL and all exploratory findings separately.\n\nWhatever the results show, record them faithfully.\n\nLet's see what the fluidity hypothesis predicts on fresh starts.\n\n~ Authorization granted.", "lock_made": { "utc": "2026-10-14T20:34:15+00:00", "halifax": "2026-10-14T17:34:15-03:00" }, "lock_sha256": "b976bc189e3e23bfbf17a8c62c8c4f046f0a36af75ee8f135ab94c7bd36cbf77" }, "part_sha256": { "base_115": "11f3a4401d2b0047dd57379f4a716bfdbeb00b82b5fd052b150f4b40a0a846b5", "base_116": "81f804958d724a3b289653a0e39ddb7c8aa6b717cf07104c754c0ba8233408a0", "base_117": "2017cf27d385af4de7b6e272551719fd4fb762fc33536c600e34e81f94637aca", "base_118": "b99115d70a097f7ff5be98e54a4bb102e7e1c33ccd5185328b083ee4ddc1c71d", "base_119": 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