Scattering-side replication (step 4, prospective), 2026-10-15 14:44 Halifax. Fresh starts 147 to 170 (seeds 146 to 169), 10 moments each by the medium pilot's rule: 240 moments, every start counting equally. At each moment four arms run from the base run's state at T, both copies, 200 units changed and 500 restored: the untouched rerun, the raised pull (K x 1.005), arm F (c_f = 0.6) and arm F' (c_f = 0.4), as in the pilot. A toy model; histories, not memory.
Bars: starts are the units; the larger of the resampled bar (400 resamples, seed 20261016) and SD/sqrt(24); a share of averages (B1, the share left after R) takes the resampled bar. 'Inside': the reading ± 2 bars within ± the margin. 'Clear': more than 3 bars from zero.
Sections 1 and 2 score again the predictions made before the pilot (plan-final.md), with the pilot's own labels and combined readings; section 3 describes. Sections 4 to 6 are Colson's three questions, with criteria written after the pilot. Section 7 quotes the pilot's sealed numbers, never pooled with these.

1. Comparison B (c_f = 0.6), against untouched
   B1, the gain at R as a share of the raised pull's (margin ±0.25): +0.066 ± 0.031: as expected (no meaningful change)
   B2, the faster half's own coherence at R (margin ±0.005): +0.0052 ± 0.0007: contradicts (a meaningful change)
   E-any, the share of group-moments holding a rhythm (inside ±0.05): +0.000 ± 0.000: as expected (no edge synchronization)
   E-steady (used only in the combined reading): +0.002 ± 0.002: inside ±0.05
   E-pair (described): +0.000 ± 0.000
   Combined reading: 2. A change in the faster half's coherence without a separate rhythm.

2. Comparison B' (c_f = 0.4), against untouched
   B2 (as expected: more than 3 bars above zero and at least 0.005; contradicts: inside ±0.005): +0.0590 ± 0.0020: as expected (up)
   E-pair (as expected: more than 3 bars above zero and at least 0.10; contradicts: inside ±0.05): +0.713 ± 0.023: as expected
   E-any (the same labels): +0.967 ± 0.008: as expected
   E-steady (used only in the combined reading): +0.996 ± 0.003: not inside ±0.05
   The median |Omega*| over the 806 directions holding a rhythm: 0.963 (within 0.90 to 1.10)
   B1 (described): +0.622 ± 0.065
   Combined reading: 1. The predicted counter-rotating edge rhythm.

3. Described, not labelled (arm minus untouched unless stated)
   C at R, untouched: 0.0251 ± 0.0006. The gain at R: raised pull +0.0214 ± 0.0010; arm F (0.6) +0.0014 ± 0.0006; arm F' (0.4) +0.0133 ± 0.0011.
   The extra pull the raised pull delivered over the window (the two groups' average): 0.068.
   Where any gain sits at R: the exact contributions (slower half, faster half, free turners), then each half's own coherence (slower, faster):
     raised pull: +0.0230 ± 0.0009, -0.0015 ± 0.0003, -0.0000 ± 0.0001; +0.0450 ± 0.0019, +0.0000 ± 0.0002
     arm F (0.6): +0.0003 ± 0.0007, +0.0010 ± 0.0005, +0.0001 ± 0.0001; +0.0025 ± 0.0012, +0.0052 ± 0.0007
     arm F' (0.4): -0.0014 ± 0.0017, +0.0149 ± 0.0015, -0.0001 ± 0.0001; +0.0334 ± 0.0026, +0.0590 ± 0.0020
   C by 100-unit block (the window's two, then five after R):
     raised pull: [+0.0046, +0.0155, +0.0177, +0.0126, +0.0089, +0.0061, +0.0038]
     arm F (0.6): [+0.0011, +0.0011, +0.0004, -0.0001, -0.0008, -0.0006, -0.0007]
     arm F' (0.4): [+0.0053, +0.0118, +0.0007, +0.0001, -0.0002, +0.0001, -0.0002]
   The share of the gain at R still there over (R + 200, R + 500] (it means something only if B1 shows a change): raised pull +0.29 ± 0.03; arm F (0.6) -0.50 ± 2.79; arm F' (0.4) -0.01 ± 0.03.
   Later growth over (R + 200, R + 500] (the medium pilot's shams: +0.0015 on average; the benchmark is 0.1602 x |the gain at R|): raised pull -0.0041 ± 0.0006 (benchmark 0.0034); arm F (0.6) -0.0006 ± 0.0005 (benchmark 0.0002); arm F' (0.4) +0.0002 ± 0.0004 (benchmark 0.0021).
   B2's course through the window (the faster half's own coherence, 50-unit blocks):
     raised pull: [+0.0000, +0.0000, -0.0000, -0.0000]
     arm F (0.6): [+0.0034, +0.0043, +0.0044, +0.0043]
     arm F' (0.4): [+0.0136, +0.0321, +0.0473, +0.0563]
   At R, |z2|, |z3|, |z4| and |the A-B timing|: raised pull -0.0003 ± 0.0002, -0.0004 ± 0.0004, -0.0006 ± 0.0004, -0.371 ± 0.037; arm F (0.6) -0.0006 ± 0.0004, -0.0007 ± 0.0004, -0.0003 ± 0.0004, +0.061 ± 0.062; arm F' (0.4) +0.0012 ± 0.0005, +0.0004 ± 0.0005, +0.0003 ± 0.0005, +0.038 ± 0.053.
   The rule's numbers, every arm (shares of group-moments; L, S and |Omega*| over every direction, median and largest):
     untouched: pair 0.000, any 0.000, one way only 0.000, steady 0.000; directions holding a rhythm 0; L 1.10 (1.35), S 0.0091 (0.0294), |Omega*| 0.978 (1.224)
     raised pull: pair 0.000, any 0.000, one way only 0.000, steady 0.000; E one way only +0.000 ± 0.000; directions holding a rhythm 0; L 1.10 (1.35), S 0.0091 (0.0291), |Omega*| 0.977 (1.268)
     arm F (0.6): pair 0.000, any 0.000, one way only 0.000, steady 0.002; E one way only +0.000 ± 0.000; directions holding a rhythm 0; L 1.12 (1.52), S 0.0191 (0.0593), |Omega*| 0.977 (1.119)
     arm F' (0.4): pair 0.713, any 0.967, one way only 0.254, steady 0.996; E one way only +0.254 ± 0.021; directions holding a rhythm 806; L 1.96 (2.67), S 0.1237 (0.1694), |Omega*| 0.963 (1.040)
   Each rhythm's size (medians over the directions holding one): how many of the 968 share its interval, its S, and the slower-half oscillators turning in the same interval:
     arm F' (0.4): 99, 0.1281, 19
   A and B in step (moments and directions where both groups hold a rhythm; their rates within 0.03; their steady parts within a quarter turn; both):
     arm F' (0.4): 343; 343; 298; 298
   Growth through the window and fading after R, for the directions holding a rhythm: the median S at their Omega* in each 50-unit block from T to R + 500, then the median turning rate of w in each block (signed: turning in its own direction is positive):
     arm F' (0.4): S [0.038, 0.078, 0.112, 0.128, 0.033, 0.010, 0.006, 0.005, 0.004, 0.004, 0.003, 0.004, 0.003, 0.003]
     arm F' (0.4): turning [+0.908, +0.963, +0.963, +0.962, +0.784, +0.597, +0.567, +0.557, +0.537, +0.528, +0.531, +0.544, +0.544, +0.554]
   How far each reshaping moved the rates (the faster half's median and largest |natural rate|): untouched 2.18 and 19.72; 0.6 1.69 and 12.21; 0.4 1.44 and 8.46.

4. Question 1. Does the counter-rotating edge rhythm reliably emerge at 0.4, with a turning rate consistent with the analytical prediction? (criteria written after the pilot)
   Section 2's combined reading at 0.4: 1. E-pair: as expected. E-any: as expected.
   The median |Omega*| over the 806 directions holding a rhythm in arm F': 0.9628 ± 0.0003 (the bar resampled only). The band runs from 0.9301 to 0.9941, 0.03 beyond the theory's 0.9601 (A and B together) and 0.9641 (opposite): the rate is inside the band.
   PASS needs combined reading 1 and the rate ± 2 bars strictly inside the band. FAIL: E-pair contradicts, E-any contradicts, or the rate more than 3 bars beyond either end of the band.
   Verdict: PASS (combined reading 1 at 0.4, and the rate inside the band).
   Described: 24 of 24 starts hold a pair in arm F' at least once, and 24 in at least 2 of their 20 group-moments.

5. Question 2 (a hypothesis set after the pilot). Does the 0.6 arm reproducibly produce a positive B2 change without establishing a separate rhythm?
   This criterion was written after the pilot, from the pilot alone. Before the pilot, the plan predicted no meaningful change in B2 at 0.6 (margin ±0.005); section 1 scores that prediction.
   B2 at 0.6: +0.0052 ± 0.0007; 22 of 24 starts above zero; more than 3 bars above zero.
   By the margin set before the pilot (±0.005), section 1's label: contradicts (a meaningful change).
   The pilot's historical reading (12 starts, exploratory; section 7): +0.0062 ± 0.0013, contradicts (a meaningful change), against the null predicted before the pilot.
   E-any at 0.6: as expected (no edge synchronization). E-steady at 0.6: +0.002 ± 0.002, inside ±0.05.
   PASS needs B2 more than 3 bars above zero, E-any as expected and E-steady inside ±0.05. FAIL: B2 inside ±0.005 without being more than 3 bars above zero, B2 more than 3 bars below zero, or E-any contradicts.
   Verdict: PASS (B2 at 0.6 more than 3 bars above zero, E-any as expected and E-steady inside ±0.05). The size and its bar above stand whatever the verdict.

6. Question 3. Can we directly distinguish the 0.4 and 0.6 outcomes using a prespecified paired comparison? (criteria written after the pilot)
   D-any, the share of group-moments holding a rhythm, arm F' minus arm F at the same moments (size 0.10, inside ±0.05): +0.967 ± 0.008: as expected.
   D-B2, the faster half's own coherence at R, arm F' minus arm F (size 0.005, inside ±0.005): +0.0537 ± 0.0021: as expected.
   PASS needs both as expected (more than 3 bars above zero and at least the size). FAIL: both inside their margins, or either more than 3 bars below zero.
   Verdict: PASS (D-any and D-B2 both as expected).
   Described: D-pair +0.713 ± 0.023; D-steady +0.994 ± 0.003. Starts with D-any of at least 0.10 on their own: 24 of 24; with D-B2 of at least 0.005: 24; both: 24. Group-moments holding a rhythm in arm F' but not in arm F: 464 of 480; the reverse: 0.
   B2 above zero at 0.4: 24 of 24 starts (at 0.6: see section 5).

7. The pilot's sealed readings, for reference only (fresh starts 135 to 146, exploratory; quoted from pilot_results.json as change-2026-10-15-8 sealed it; never pooled with these, never recomputed)
   At 0.6: B1 +0.081 ± 0.041: as expected (no meaningful change); B2 +0.0062 ± 0.0013: contradicts (a meaningful change); E-any +0.000 ± 0.000: as expected (no edge synchronization); combined reading 2. A change in the faster half's coherence without a separate rhythm.
   At 0.4: B2 +0.0542 ± 0.0018: as expected (up); E-pair +0.696 ± 0.037: as expected; E-any +0.967 ± 0.011: as expected; the median |Omega*| over 399 directions 0.963; combined reading 1. The predicted counter-rotating edge rhythm.

8. Notes
   The untouched rerun against the base run: coherence and gap growth identical to the last digit at 240 of 240 moments (largest coherence difference 0.0e+00); its first copy's state at R identical at 240 of 240.
   Every arm on its scheduled pull and rates, and back on the original ones after R: 240 of 240 moments. Every reading present and finite, the sums adding up, the rule running: 240 of 240.
   The pilot's starts aren't in sections 1 to 6: its sealed numbers are quoted in section 7 only.
   Saved: 335.4 MB in generated-artifacts/scattering-side/replication/ (24 base runs and 240 moments).
   Compute: 18 pieces, 57.6 minutes of foreground time (7 workers at a time). Machine: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8581C CPU @ 2.30GHz.
   Every piece ran under this lock, the final plan, both codes, the pilot lock, plan, lock and amendment: yes.
   The cause test's locked files unchanged: True.
   Checks: replication_checks.json SHA-256 e11a782844283f33e9ffda64931893010b45829880f3cda403db6976a6ed0b7c. Go: replication_go.json SHA-256 5b8de44bf27cdc7c21b3a88020494b8ad8eca90f551bc189bea782f014e44363 (sealed by change-2026-10-15-12.json).
   Moments: start 147: T = 2235, 2565, 2895, 3225, 3555, 3885, 4215, 4545, 4875, 5205; start 148: T = 2030, 2360, 2690, 3020, 3350, 3680, 4010, 4340, 4670, 5000; start 149: T = 2195, 2525, 2855, 3185, 3515, 3845, 4175, 4505, 4835, 5165; start 150: T = 2295, 2625, 2955, 3285, 3615, 3945, 4275, 4605, 4935, 5265; start 151: T = 2065, 2395, 2725, 3055, 3385, 3715, 4045, 4375, 4705, 5035; start 152: T = 2220, 2550, 2880, 3210, 3540, 3870, 4200, 4530, 4860, 5190; start 153: T = 2010, 2340, 2670, 3000, 3330, 3660, 3990, 4320, 4650, 4980; start 154: T = 2130, 2460, 2790, 3120, 3450, 3780, 4110, 4440, 4770, 5100; start 155: T = 2075, 2405, 2735, 3065, 3395, 3725, 4055, 4385, 4715, 5045; start 156: T = 2115, 2445, 2775, 3105, 3435, 3765, 4095, 4425, 4755, 5085; start 157: T = 2115, 2445, 2775, 3105, 3435, 3765, 4095, 4425, 4755, 5085; start 158: T = 2325, 2655, 2985, 3315, 3645, 3975, 4305, 4635, 4965, 5295; start 159: T = 2260, 2590, 2920, 3250, 3580, 3910, 4240, 4570, 4900, 5230; start 160: T = 2155, 2485, 2815, 3145, 3475, 3805, 4135, 4465, 4795, 5125; start 161: T = 2295, 2625, 2955, 3285, 3615, 3945, 4275, 4605, 4935, 5265; start 162: T = 2280, 2610, 2940, 3270, 3600, 3930, 4260, 4590, 4920, 5250; start 163: T = 2105, 2435, 2765, 3095, 3425, 3755, 4085, 4415, 4745, 5075; start 164: T = 2080, 2410, 2740, 3070, 3400, 3730, 4060, 4390, 4720, 5050; start 165: T = 2205, 2535, 2865, 3195, 3525, 3855, 4185, 4515, 4845, 5175; start 166: T = 2210, 2540, 2870, 3200, 3530, 3860, 4190, 4520, 4850, 5180; start 167: T = 2290, 2620, 2950, 3280, 3610, 3940, 4270, 4600, 4930, 5260; start 168: T = 2020, 2350, 2680, 3010, 3340, 3670, 4000, 4330, 4660, 4990; start 169: T = 2115, 2445, 2775, 3105, 3435, 3765, 4095, 4425, 4755, 5085; start 170: T = 2160, 2490, 2820, 3150, 3480, 3810, 4140, 4470, 4800, 5130.