Cause test, exploratory follow-up, round 2 (coherence history): October 12, 2026. N = 4,000 per group, K = 1.90, eps = 0.1 EXPLORATORY: approved by Colson after round 1; chosen after the cause test's decision was known and run on the same saved runs, so not a test. The decision stands: FAIL as registered. Nothing here changes it. Read-only: the model was not run. Every input fingerprinted before and after: unchanged; the 16 locked files still match cause_lock.json. Data: the 42 new starts (19 to 60) and their 420 moments; the 18 older starts (1 to 18) as a cross-check. Cells: mean ± error bar; [k/n] = starts below 0. Error bars from the starts, as in the cause test. Checks: the benchmark on the old 18 (-0.1602); round 1's C(T) with W given g and the mean over (T - 100, T] (-0.0191); the induced slopes (-0.0231 delayed, +0.3789 early). Definitions: M_tau = mean C over the tau units before T (T left out); F_tau = C(T) - M_tau; W = growth over (T + 200, T + 500]; E = growth over (T, T + 200]; g = growth in the five 100-unit windows up to T. Every history window ends before T and W starts at T + 200; no control looks past T. H1, H2 and H4 are associations in untouched runs, not effects. M_tau is a summary of the past, not a measured physical memory. H1. THE WINDOW-RESPONSE CURVE (start by start; new 42 starts unless marked old) tau M with W, plain M with W, given g slope b, given g M with W, given g and C(T) old: given g | given g, C(T) 5 -0.3928 -0.3142 ± 0.0276 [40/42] -0.2349 ± 0.0206 -0.2045 ± 0.0176 [40/42] -0.324 | -0.209 10 -0.4166 -0.3396 ± 0.0294 [40/42] -0.2752 ± 0.0239 -0.2427 ± 0.0207 [40/42] -0.351 | -0.250 25 -0.4547 -0.3838 ± 0.0321 [40/42] -0.3531 ± 0.0304 -0.3058 ± 0.0255 [40/42] -0.399 | -0.320 50 -0.4903 -0.4284 ± 0.0345 [39/42] -0.4427 ± 0.0380 -0.3638 ± 0.0295 [39/42] -0.447 | -0.382 100 -0.5317 -0.4799 ± 0.0362 [39/42] -0.5617 ± 0.0477 -0.4263 ± 0.0328 [39/42] -0.493 | -0.441 150 -0.5613 -0.5029 ± 0.0360 [39/42] -0.6252 ± 0.0517 -0.4540 ± 0.0331 [39/42] -0.515 | -0.469 200 -0.5842 -0.5166 ± 0.0358 [39/42] -0.6694 ± 0.0556 -0.4711 ± 0.0331 [39/42] -0.529 | -0.487 300 -0.6139 -0.5396 ± 0.0345 [40/42] -0.7430 ± 0.0606 -0.4999 ± 0.0322 [40/42] -0.553 | -0.516 400 -0.6234 -0.5569 ± 0.0325 [42/42] -0.8003 ± 0.0606 -0.5206 ± 0.0306 [42/42] -0.567 | -0.534 500 -0.6142 -0.5638 ± 0.0310 [42/42] -0.8304 ± 0.0583 -0.5297 ± 0.0294 [42/42] -0.571 | -0.540 750 -0.5376 -0.5617 ± 0.0328 [41/42] -0.8659 ± 0.0649 -0.5319 ± 0.0321 [41/42] -0.549 | -0.521 1000 -0.4038 -0.5157 ± 0.0403 [39/42] -0.9125 ± 0.0882 -0.4876 ± 0.0397 [39/42] -0.488 | -0.461 1500 -0.2185 -0.3249 ± 0.0465 [35/42] -0.9790 ± 0.1975 -0.3024 ± 0.0458 [33/42] -0.152 | -0.147 2000 -0.1500 -0.1464 ± 0.0514 [31/42] -0.5417 ± 0.2091 -0.1396 ± 0.0503 [30/42] -0.030 | -0.034 for comparison, C(T) with W given g: -0.2552 ± 0.0238 (old -0.265) Disjoint bands (mean C over the lags (a, b] before T), partial correlation with W lags given g given g and C(T) old: given g | given g, C(T) (0, 5] -0.3142 ± 0.0276 [40/42] -0.2045 ± 0.0176 [40/42] -0.324 | -0.209 (5, 10] -0.3170 ± 0.0277 [40/42] -0.2275 ± 0.0195 [40/42] -0.328 | -0.236 (10, 25] -0.3633 ± 0.0307 [39/42] -0.2927 ± 0.0244 [39/42] -0.379 | -0.308 (25, 50] -0.3965 ± 0.0322 [39/42] -0.3381 ± 0.0274 [38/42] -0.414 | -0.355 (50, 100] -0.4454 ± 0.0333 [39/42] -0.3949 ± 0.0301 [39/42] -0.462 | -0.413 (100, 150] -0.4368 ± 0.0315 [39/42] -0.3940 ± 0.0286 [39/42] -0.469 | -0.428 (150, 200] -0.4409 ± 0.0315 [39/42] -0.4037 ± 0.0288 [39/42] -0.469 | -0.433 (200, 300] -0.4766 ± 0.0318 [42/42] -0.4484 ± 0.0301 [42/42] -0.506 | -0.477 (300, 400] -0.4659 ± 0.0308 [41/42] -0.4411 ± 0.0300 [41/42] -0.482 | -0.460 (400, 500] -0.4213 ± 0.0327 [41/42] -0.4028 ± 0.0325 [41/42] -0.435 | -0.417 (500, 750] -0.3887 ± 0.0386 [39/42] -0.3807 ± 0.0377 [40/42] -0.357 | -0.349 (750, 1000] -0.0391 ± 0.0471 [27/42] -0.0439 ± 0.0463 [26/42] +0.008 | -0.010 (1000, 1500] +0.2212 ± 0.0502 [10/42] +0.2035 ± 0.0499 [11/42] +0.381 | +0.349 (1500, 2000] +0.2287 ± 0.0486 [9/42] +0.2080 ± 0.0481 [10/42] +0.133 | +0.136 Joint fit: W on C(T), the four coarse bands and g; each one's partial correlation given all the others partial correlation slope old: partial correlation C(T) -0.0724 ± 0.0092 [38/42] -0.0308 ± 0.0035 -0.070 lags (0, 100] -0.1394 ± 0.0393 [29/42] -0.1907 ± 0.0517 -0.120 lags (100, 500] -0.2684 ± 0.0389 [38/42] -0.4530 ± 0.0702 -0.303 lags (500, 1000] -0.0545 ± 0.0552 [23/42] -0.0061 ± 0.1099 +0.000 lags (1000, 2000] +0.0874 ± 0.0585 [14/42] +0.1221 ± 0.1202 +0.122 H2. SLOW AND FAST PARTS, C(T) = M_tau + F_tau (W = a + b_M M + b_F F + g terms; slopes are growth per unit C) tau mean M SD M SD F b_M b_F M with W, given g, F F with W, given g, M old: M|g,F | F|g,M 5 0.0253 0.0090 0.0073 -0.244 ± 0.021 -0.049 ± 0.006 -0.3200 ± 0.0281 [40/42] -0.0669 ± 0.0072 [38/42] -0.330 | -0.071 10 0.0253 0.0086 0.0075 -0.281 ± 0.025 -0.039 ± 0.005 -0.3431 ± 0.0297 [40/42] -0.0551 ± 0.0063 [39/42] -0.355 | -0.058 25 0.0253 0.0080 0.0079 -0.358 ± 0.031 -0.030 ± 0.004 -0.3860 ± 0.0323 [39/42] -0.0478 ± 0.0060 [39/42] -0.402 | -0.050 50 0.0253 0.0075 0.0081 -0.446 ± 0.038 -0.022 ± 0.004 -0.4297 ± 0.0347 [39/42] -0.0382 ± 0.0066 [37/42] -0.448 | -0.035 100 0.0254 0.0072 0.0083 -0.563 ± 0.048 -0.014 ± 0.005 -0.4806 ± 0.0364 [39/42] -0.0292 ± 0.0088 [29/42] -0.493 | -0.016 150 0.0254 0.0069 0.0086 -0.628 ± 0.052 -0.020 ± 0.006 -0.5043 ± 0.0362 [39/42] -0.0406 ± 0.0110 [29/42] -0.516 | -0.022 200 0.0254 0.0067 0.0088 -0.674 ± 0.056 -0.024 ± 0.007 -0.5187 ± 0.0360 [39/42] -0.0503 ± 0.0126 [31/42] -0.531 | -0.030 300 0.0254 0.0064 0.0093 -0.750 ± 0.062 -0.032 ± 0.008 -0.5429 ± 0.0347 [40/42] -0.0662 ± 0.0153 [30/42] -0.556 | -0.043 400 0.0255 0.0060 0.0097 -0.807 ± 0.061 -0.036 ± 0.009 -0.5602 ± 0.0328 [42/42] -0.0754 ± 0.0167 [29/42] -0.571 | -0.058 500 0.0255 0.0057 0.0101 -0.838 ± 0.059 -0.042 ± 0.010 -0.5675 ± 0.0313 [42/42] -0.0872 ± 0.0181 [32/42] -0.576 | -0.077 750 0.0254 0.0048 0.0108 -0.883 ± 0.066 -0.060 ± 0.011 -0.5676 ± 0.0327 [41/42] -0.1222 ± 0.0200 [33/42] -0.558 | -0.121 1000 0.0253 0.0040 0.0111 -0.933 ± 0.084 -0.073 ± 0.011 -0.5232 ± 0.0397 [40/42] -0.1461 ± 0.0211 [35/42] -0.503 | -0.174 1500 0.0250 0.0027 0.0111 -1.019 ± 0.191 -0.119 ± 0.012 -0.3428 ± 0.0453 [35/42] -0.2162 ± 0.0226 [40/42] -0.200 | -0.247 2000 0.0249 0.0019 0.0109 -0.649 ± 0.202 -0.138 ± 0.014 -0.1774 ± 0.0498 [31/42] -0.2351 ± 0.0241 [38/42] -0.076 | -0.213 SD of C(T) within a start: 0.0107; mean C: 0.0253 Early growth and natural persistence (E = a + a_M M + a_F F + g terms; later mean C = a + p_M M + p_F F) tau a_M a_F F with E, given g, M p_M (T, T+200] p_F (T, T+200] p_M (T+200, T+500] p_F (T+200, T+500] 5 +0.018 ± 0.025 +0.018 ± 0.007 +0.0194 ± 0.0076 +0.483 ± 0.017 +0.111 ± 0.004 +0.123 ± 0.016 +0.025 ± 0.004 10 +0.011 ± 0.028 +0.027 ± 0.006 +0.0312 ± 0.0065 +0.524 ± 0.017 +0.095 ± 0.004 +0.131 ± 0.018 +0.024 ± 0.004 25 -0.026 ± 0.035 +0.050 ± 0.005 +0.0628 ± 0.0058 +0.587 ± 0.017 +0.095 ± 0.004 +0.138 ± 0.021 +0.031 ± 0.003 50 -0.111 ± 0.040 +0.082 ± 0.006 +0.1080 ± 0.0063 +0.626 ± 0.017 +0.105 ± 0.005 +0.131 ± 0.024 +0.045 ± 0.004 100 -0.301 ± 0.044 +0.126 ± 0.008 +0.1751 ± 0.0083 +0.637 ± 0.017 +0.138 ± 0.008 +0.100 ± 0.027 +0.074 ± 0.005 150 -0.424 ± 0.046 +0.137 ± 0.010 +0.1972 ± 0.0112 +0.622 ± 0.018 +0.174 ± 0.011 +0.063 ± 0.030 +0.099 ± 0.007 200 -0.497 ± 0.051 +0.137 ± 0.011 +0.2023 ± 0.0136 +0.600 ± 0.019 +0.206 ± 0.013 +0.023 ± 0.032 +0.118 ± 0.008 300 -0.596 ± 0.062 +0.129 ± 0.012 +0.1986 ± 0.0170 +0.549 ± 0.021 +0.258 ± 0.015 -0.057 ± 0.036 +0.143 ± 0.010 400 -0.667 ± 0.072 +0.125 ± 0.012 +0.1965 ± 0.0186 +0.492 ± 0.026 +0.294 ± 0.016 -0.137 ± 0.041 +0.153 ± 0.011 500 -0.729 ± 0.080 +0.122 ± 0.013 +0.1955 ± 0.0199 +0.426 ± 0.031 +0.319 ± 0.016 -0.222 ± 0.048 +0.154 ± 0.012 750 -0.837 ± 0.084 +0.110 ± 0.013 +0.1848 ± 0.0218 +0.229 ± 0.054 +0.343 ± 0.017 -0.466 ± 0.079 +0.130 ± 0.014 1000 -1.162 ± 0.181 +0.099 ± 0.013 +0.1715 ± 0.0218 -0.037 ± 0.117 +0.338 ± 0.017 -0.683 ± 0.087 +0.098 ± 0.015 1500 -1.257 ± 0.161 +0.049 ± 0.014 +0.0737 ± 0.0231 -0.385 ± 0.105 +0.313 ± 0.016 -1.198 ± 0.157 +0.063 ± 0.013 2000 -1.023 ± 0.188 +0.024 ± 0.015 +0.0312 ± 0.0243 -0.475 ± 0.156 +0.322 ± 0.016 -1.188 ± 0.247 +0.068 ± 0.012 H3. THE NATURAL FAST PART AGAINST THE INTERVENTIONS Interventions (the cause test's arms; effects of the specified one-moment pulses, up against down): induced slope, growth over (T + 200, T + 500] per unit change at T: dense +0.0200 ± 0.0137, sparse -0.0661 ± 0.0149, pooled -0.0231 ± 0.0111 induced slope, growth over (T, T + 200] per unit change at T: dense +0.4119 ± 0.0121, sparse +0.3459 ± 0.0145, pooled +0.3789 ± 0.0111 change at T, (C_up - C_down) / 2: +0.01303 ± 0.00028; persistence (report): 0.511 over (T, T + 200], 0.297 over (T + 200, T + 500] M_tau leaves out T, so each pulse moved F_tau by the change at T and left M_tau unchanged, for every tau. Observational (untouched runs; associations, not effects), beside the induced slopes: tau b_F, every T b_F, 420 moments induced - b_F a_F, every T a_F, 420 moments induced early - a_F p_F (T, T+200] p_F (T+200, T+500] SD F / change 5 -0.049 ± 0.006 +0.007 ± 0.049 +0.026 ± 0.012 [18/42]+0.018 ± 0.007 +0.012 ± 0.042 +0.361 ± 0.013 [0/42] +0.111 +0.025 0.56 10 -0.039 ± 0.005 +0.007 ± 0.046 +0.016 ± 0.011 [21/42]+0.027 ± 0.006 -0.009 ± 0.043 +0.352 ± 0.013 [0/42] +0.095 +0.024 0.57 25 -0.030 ± 0.004 +0.030 ± 0.043 +0.007 ± 0.011 [23/42]+0.050 ± 0.005 +0.030 ± 0.041 +0.329 ± 0.013 [0/42] +0.095 +0.031 0.60 50 -0.022 ± 0.004 +0.070 ± 0.042 -0.001 ± 0.011 [24/42]+0.082 ± 0.006 +0.106 ± 0.041 +0.297 ± 0.013 [0/42] +0.105 +0.045 0.62 100 -0.014 ± 0.005 +0.079 ± 0.040 -0.009 ± 0.012 [26/42]+0.126 ± 0.008 +0.183 ± 0.036 +0.253 ± 0.014 [0/42] +0.138 +0.074 0.64 150 -0.020 ± 0.006 +0.058 ± 0.040 -0.003 ± 0.012 [24/42]+0.137 ± 0.010 +0.191 ± 0.031 +0.242 ± 0.015 [0/42] +0.174 +0.099 0.66 200 -0.024 ± 0.007 +0.050 ± 0.038 +0.001 ± 0.013 [23/42]+0.137 ± 0.011 +0.183 ± 0.031 +0.242 ± 0.016 [0/42] +0.206 +0.118 0.68 300 -0.032 ± 0.008 +0.032 ± 0.036 +0.009 ± 0.013 [23/42]+0.129 ± 0.012 +0.162 ± 0.032 +0.249 ± 0.017 [0/42] +0.258 +0.143 0.71 400 -0.036 ± 0.009 +0.013 ± 0.035 +0.013 ± 0.014 [23/42]+0.125 ± 0.012 +0.146 ± 0.031 +0.254 ± 0.018 [0/42] +0.294 +0.153 0.75 500 -0.042 ± 0.010 -0.003 ± 0.034 +0.019 ± 0.014 [23/42]+0.122 ± 0.013 +0.135 ± 0.030 +0.257 ± 0.018 [0/42] +0.319 +0.154 0.77 750 -0.060 ± 0.011 -0.027 ± 0.034 +0.037 ± 0.014 [16/42]+0.110 ± 0.013 +0.117 ± 0.027 +0.269 ± 0.018 [0/42] +0.343 +0.130 0.83 1000 -0.073 ± 0.011 -0.052 ± 0.034 +0.050 ± 0.014 [12/42]+0.099 ± 0.013 +0.098 ± 0.027 +0.280 ± 0.017 [0/42] +0.338 +0.098 0.85 1500 -0.119 ± 0.012 -0.118 ± 0.031 +0.095 ± 0.016 [5/42] +0.049 ± 0.014 +0.030 ± 0.026 +0.330 ± 0.018 [0/42] +0.313 +0.063 0.86 2000 -0.138 ± 0.014 -0.141 ± 0.032 +0.115 ± 0.016 [7/42] +0.024 ± 0.015 +0.008 ± 0.028 +0.355 ± 0.019 [0/42] +0.322 +0.068 0.84 At the 420 moments, the slow part (b_M, untouched continuation), for comparison: 5: -0.249 ± 0.038 10: -0.275 ± 0.041 25: -0.358 ± 0.041 50: -0.458 ± 0.042 100: -0.547 ± 0.043 150: -0.570 ± 0.039 200: -0.621 ± 0.038 300: -0.676 ± 0.043 400: -0.720 ± 0.049 500: -0.752 ± 0.052 750: -0.827 ± 0.057 1000: -0.926 ± 0.071 1500: -0.985 ± 0.116 2000: -0.821 ± 0.145 H4. STABILITY AND POSSIBLE ARTIFACTS a. Independent blocks of starts (mean ± error bar within each block); starts below 0 of all 60 M with W, given g tau new 19-39 new 40-60 old 1-6 old 7-12 old 13-18 below 0 5 -0.312 ± 0.040 -0.316 ± 0.039 -0.434 ± 0.074 -0.306 ± 0.060 -0.231 ± 0.054 58/60 10 -0.338 ± 0.042 -0.342 ± 0.042 -0.468 ± 0.078 -0.331 ± 0.065 -0.254 ± 0.059 57/60 25 -0.383 ± 0.046 -0.385 ± 0.046 -0.528 ± 0.081 -0.374 ± 0.074 -0.297 ± 0.070 57/60 50 -0.429 ± 0.049 -0.428 ± 0.050 -0.585 ± 0.080 -0.417 ± 0.085 -0.339 ± 0.088 56/60 100 -0.478 ± 0.053 -0.482 ± 0.051 -0.645 ± 0.070 -0.457 ± 0.097 -0.376 ± 0.121 56/60 150 -0.498 ± 0.053 -0.507 ± 0.050 -0.677 ± 0.065 -0.466 ± 0.102 -0.402 ± 0.125 56/60 200 -0.511 ± 0.053 -0.522 ± 0.049 -0.697 ± 0.063 -0.466 ± 0.102 -0.425 ± 0.127 56/60 300 -0.530 ± 0.052 -0.549 ± 0.046 -0.726 ± 0.061 -0.463 ± 0.104 -0.470 ± 0.116 57/60 400 -0.544 ± 0.050 -0.569 ± 0.043 -0.733 ± 0.061 -0.464 ± 0.110 -0.505 ± 0.113 58/60 500 -0.546 ± 0.048 -0.582 ± 0.040 -0.726 ± 0.064 -0.462 ± 0.115 -0.524 ± 0.117 58/60 750 -0.518 ± 0.050 -0.605 ± 0.041 -0.695 ± 0.077 -0.456 ± 0.120 -0.496 ± 0.138 57/60 1000 -0.446 ± 0.061 -0.585 ± 0.049 -0.623 ± 0.101 -0.421 ± 0.120 -0.418 ± 0.152 55/60 1500 -0.296 ± 0.066 -0.354 ± 0.068 -0.225 ± 0.104 -0.140 ± 0.121 -0.090 ± 0.159 48/60 2000 -0.095 ± 0.073 -0.197 ± 0.073 -0.079 ± 0.148 -0.104 ± 0.189 +0.094 ± 0.134 40/60 M with W, given g and F tau new 19-39 new 40-60 old 1-6 old 7-12 old 13-18 below 0 5 -0.320 ± 0.040 -0.320 ± 0.040 -0.442 ± 0.075 -0.313 ± 0.061 -0.236 ± 0.055 58/60 10 -0.342 ± 0.042 -0.344 ± 0.043 -0.472 ± 0.079 -0.335 ± 0.066 -0.257 ± 0.060 58/60 25 -0.386 ± 0.046 -0.386 ± 0.047 -0.530 ± 0.082 -0.377 ± 0.075 -0.299 ± 0.070 56/60 50 -0.431 ± 0.049 -0.429 ± 0.050 -0.585 ± 0.080 -0.419 ± 0.086 -0.340 ± 0.088 56/60 100 -0.479 ± 0.053 -0.482 ± 0.052 -0.645 ± 0.070 -0.459 ± 0.097 -0.376 ± 0.120 56/60 150 -0.500 ± 0.053 -0.508 ± 0.050 -0.677 ± 0.066 -0.470 ± 0.101 -0.402 ± 0.125 56/60 200 -0.514 ± 0.054 -0.524 ± 0.049 -0.697 ± 0.063 -0.471 ± 0.101 -0.425 ± 0.126 56/60 300 -0.535 ± 0.052 -0.551 ± 0.047 -0.727 ± 0.063 -0.470 ± 0.103 -0.471 ± 0.115 57/60 400 -0.549 ± 0.050 -0.571 ± 0.044 -0.736 ± 0.063 -0.473 ± 0.109 -0.506 ± 0.113 58/60 500 -0.550 ± 0.048 -0.585 ± 0.041 -0.730 ± 0.065 -0.472 ± 0.113 -0.525 ± 0.116 58/60 750 -0.526 ± 0.049 -0.609 ± 0.042 -0.706 ± 0.076 -0.466 ± 0.116 -0.502 ± 0.138 57/60 1000 -0.455 ± 0.060 -0.591 ± 0.049 -0.640 ± 0.097 -0.431 ± 0.115 -0.437 ± 0.153 56/60 1500 -0.312 ± 0.065 -0.374 ± 0.066 -0.279 ± 0.101 -0.170 ± 0.118 -0.150 ± 0.156 49/60 2000 -0.124 ± 0.073 -0.230 ± 0.068 -0.128 ± 0.128 -0.137 ± 0.178 +0.036 ± 0.134 41/60 F with W, given g and M tau new 19-39 new 40-60 old 1-6 old 7-12 old 13-18 below 0 5 -0.077 ± 0.009 -0.057 ± 0.011 -0.093 ± 0.017 -0.071 ± 0.017 -0.049 ± 0.016 55/60 10 -0.065 ± 0.008 -0.045 ± 0.010 -0.076 ± 0.014 -0.058 ± 0.014 -0.040 ± 0.016 56/60 25 -0.056 ± 0.008 -0.039 ± 0.010 -0.063 ± 0.014 -0.054 ± 0.012 -0.034 ± 0.016 56/60 50 -0.044 ± 0.009 -0.032 ± 0.010 -0.032 ± 0.014 -0.049 ± 0.012 -0.023 ± 0.021 51/60 100 -0.032 ± 0.013 -0.026 ± 0.012 -0.007 ± 0.025 -0.034 ± 0.022 -0.006 ± 0.029 38/60 150 -0.046 ± 0.016 -0.035 ± 0.016 -0.014 ± 0.033 -0.045 ± 0.027 -0.006 ± 0.032 38/60 200 -0.059 ± 0.019 -0.042 ± 0.017 -0.020 ± 0.038 -0.063 ± 0.031 -0.007 ± 0.033 42/60 300 -0.080 ± 0.022 -0.052 ± 0.021 -0.032 ± 0.047 -0.082 ± 0.037 -0.015 ± 0.037 41/60 400 -0.090 ± 0.024 -0.061 ± 0.023 -0.060 ± 0.051 -0.097 ± 0.041 -0.017 ± 0.038 40/60 500 -0.102 ± 0.026 -0.073 ± 0.026 -0.097 ± 0.052 -0.104 ± 0.045 -0.030 ± 0.036 44/60 750 -0.142 ± 0.029 -0.103 ± 0.027 -0.172 ± 0.057 -0.116 ± 0.042 -0.076 ± 0.040 49/60 1000 -0.169 ± 0.031 -0.124 ± 0.029 -0.233 ± 0.067 -0.145 ± 0.043 -0.144 ± 0.046 51/60 1500 -0.233 ± 0.031 -0.200 ± 0.033 -0.336 ± 0.067 -0.229 ± 0.058 -0.178 ± 0.044 58/60 2000 -0.240 ± 0.036 -0.230 ± 0.033 -0.306 ± 0.060 -0.182 ± 0.064 -0.150 ± 0.054 54/60 b. Non-overlapping rows (T = 2,000, 2,500, ..., 5,500: 8 per start), pooled within starts, against the same pooled measure on all 701 rows new 42 tau r_M|g, all rows r_M|g, 8 rows r_M|g,F, all rows r_M|g,F, 8 rows r_F|g,M, all rows r_F|g,M, 8 rows 5 -0.331 ± 0.026 -0.242 ± 0.057 -0.337 ± 0.026 -0.249 ± 0.057 -0.068 ± 0.006 -0.060 ± 0.056 10 -0.356 ± 0.027 -0.273 ± 0.054 -0.360 ± 0.027 -0.276 ± 0.055 -0.055 ± 0.005 -0.043 ± 0.054 25 -0.399 ± 0.028 -0.335 ± 0.047 -0.401 ± 0.028 -0.333 ± 0.048 -0.043 ± 0.005 -0.006 ± 0.057 50 -0.441 ± 0.029 -0.418 ± 0.043 -0.441 ± 0.029 -0.413 ± 0.043 -0.030 ± 0.005 +0.048 ± 0.060 100 -0.485 ± 0.028 -0.440 ± 0.037 -0.486 ± 0.029 -0.435 ± 0.038 -0.020 ± 0.007 +0.042 ± 0.064 150 -0.503 ± 0.028 -0.446 ± 0.038 -0.504 ± 0.028 -0.441 ± 0.039 -0.032 ± 0.009 +0.028 ± 0.059 200 -0.514 ± 0.027 -0.446 ± 0.039 -0.516 ± 0.028 -0.441 ± 0.040 -0.042 ± 0.010 +0.018 ± 0.060 300 -0.534 ± 0.027 -0.471 ± 0.038 -0.536 ± 0.028 -0.466 ± 0.038 -0.060 ± 0.013 +0.010 ± 0.060 400 -0.548 ± 0.028 -0.495 ± 0.037 -0.551 ± 0.028 -0.490 ± 0.038 -0.073 ± 0.014 +0.005 ± 0.058 500 -0.554 ± 0.028 -0.507 ± 0.036 -0.559 ± 0.028 -0.503 ± 0.037 -0.088 ± 0.016 -0.008 ± 0.057 750 -0.547 ± 0.030 -0.526 ± 0.037 -0.558 ± 0.030 -0.524 ± 0.037 -0.130 ± 0.018 -0.029 ± 0.057 1000 -0.514 ± 0.033 -0.520 ± 0.041 -0.529 ± 0.032 -0.523 ± 0.041 -0.165 ± 0.019 -0.068 ± 0.055 1500 -0.361 ± 0.039 -0.385 ± 0.045 -0.391 ± 0.036 -0.406 ± 0.045 -0.238 ± 0.021 -0.159 ± 0.051 2000 -0.214 ± 0.045 -0.264 ± 0.052 -0.255 ± 0.041 -0.298 ± 0.048 -0.265 ± 0.023 -0.193 ± 0.054 old 18 tau r_M|g, all rows r_M|g, 8 rows r_M|g,F, all rows r_M|g,F, 8 rows r_F|g,M, all rows r_F|g,M, 8 rows 5 -0.347 ± 0.039 -0.455 ± 0.060 -0.354 ± 0.040 -0.466 ± 0.058 -0.074 ± 0.009 -0.120 ± 0.069 10 -0.375 ± 0.041 -0.472 ± 0.044 -0.379 ± 0.041 -0.478 ± 0.048 -0.060 ± 0.008 -0.095 ± 0.067 25 -0.424 ± 0.044 -0.505 ± 0.043 -0.427 ± 0.044 -0.514 ± 0.046 -0.051 ± 0.007 -0.108 ± 0.073 50 -0.473 ± 0.046 -0.570 ± 0.051 -0.474 ± 0.046 -0.573 ± 0.052 -0.032 ± 0.008 -0.076 ± 0.067 100 -0.522 ± 0.047 -0.632 ± 0.050 -0.522 ± 0.047 -0.632 ± 0.050 -0.017 ± 0.012 -0.023 ± 0.073 150 -0.543 ± 0.048 -0.639 ± 0.044 -0.543 ± 0.047 -0.641 ± 0.045 -0.026 ± 0.015 -0.064 ± 0.074 200 -0.557 ± 0.048 -0.655 ± 0.043 -0.557 ± 0.048 -0.657 ± 0.045 -0.035 ± 0.017 -0.074 ± 0.072 300 -0.579 ± 0.048 -0.672 ± 0.046 -0.580 ± 0.048 -0.676 ± 0.047 -0.048 ± 0.019 -0.105 ± 0.078 400 -0.591 ± 0.048 -0.681 ± 0.047 -0.593 ± 0.048 -0.687 ± 0.048 -0.063 ± 0.021 -0.129 ± 0.076 500 -0.591 ± 0.049 -0.680 ± 0.047 -0.595 ± 0.049 -0.689 ± 0.046 -0.084 ± 0.022 -0.156 ± 0.081 750 -0.558 ± 0.052 -0.661 ± 0.052 -0.570 ± 0.052 -0.683 ± 0.048 -0.140 ± 0.026 -0.240 ± 0.079 1000 -0.487 ± 0.056 -0.594 ± 0.063 -0.510 ± 0.055 -0.628 ± 0.057 -0.194 ± 0.030 -0.293 ± 0.077 1500 -0.193 ± 0.053 -0.327 ± 0.077 -0.253 ± 0.054 -0.395 ± 0.067 -0.278 ± 0.034 -0.374 ± 0.068 2000 -0.072 ± 0.069 -0.162 ± 0.084 -0.123 ± 0.064 -0.232 ± 0.071 -0.284 ± 0.034 -0.396 ± 0.063 c. Mismatched starts: coherence of one start, growth of the next (an autocorrelation-only reference) new 42: measure: matched mean (SD over starts) | mismatched mean ± error bar (SD) [below 0] C(T), given g: -0.2552 (0.154) | -0.0182 ± 0.0375 [24/42] (0.243) 5 r_M|g -0.314 (0.179) | -0.024 ± 0.045 [24/42] (0.289) r_M|g,F -0.320 (0.182) | -0.024 ± 0.045 [24/42] (0.294) r_F|g,M -0.067 (0.046) | -0.002 ± 0.010 [24/42] (0.066) 10 r_M|g -0.340 (0.190) | -0.026 ± 0.047 [24/42] (0.308) r_M|g,F -0.343 (0.192) | -0.026 ± 0.048 [24/42] (0.311) r_F|g,M -0.055 (0.041) | -0.002 ± 0.009 [24/42] (0.056) 25 r_M|g -0.384 (0.208) | -0.028 ± 0.052 [24/42] (0.337) r_M|g,F -0.386 (0.210) | -0.029 ± 0.052 [24/42] (0.339) r_F|g,M -0.048 (0.039) | -0.002 ± 0.008 [21/42] (0.052) 50 r_M|g -0.428 (0.224) | -0.031 ± 0.056 [24/42] (0.361) r_M|g,F -0.430 (0.225) | -0.031 ± 0.056 [24/42] (0.363) r_F|g,M -0.038 (0.043) | -0.002 ± 0.008 [19/42] (0.051) 100 r_M|g -0.480 (0.235) | -0.032 ± 0.060 [24/42] (0.386) r_M|g,F -0.481 (0.236) | -0.032 ± 0.060 [24/42] (0.387) r_F|g,M -0.029 (0.057) | -0.003 ± 0.009 [22/42] (0.058) 150 r_M|g -0.503 (0.233) | -0.030 ± 0.062 [23/42] (0.399) r_M|g,F -0.504 (0.234) | -0.031 ± 0.062 [23/42] (0.401) r_F|g,M -0.041 (0.071) | -0.005 ± 0.011 [24/42] (0.071) 200 r_M|g -0.517 (0.232) | -0.029 ± 0.063 [22/42] (0.410) r_M|g,F -0.519 (0.233) | -0.029 ± 0.063 [22/42] (0.411) r_F|g,M -0.050 (0.082) | -0.007 ± 0.013 [25/42] (0.084) 300 r_M|g -0.540 (0.224) | -0.025 ± 0.065 [22/42] (0.422) r_M|g,F -0.543 (0.225) | -0.027 ± 0.065 [22/42] (0.424) r_F|g,M -0.066 (0.099) | -0.010 ± 0.017 [26/42] (0.111) 400 r_M|g -0.557 (0.211) | -0.027 ± 0.066 [23/42] (0.425) r_M|g,F -0.560 (0.213) | -0.029 ± 0.066 [22/42] (0.427) r_F|g,M -0.075 (0.108) | -0.010 ± 0.021 [24/42] (0.138) 500 r_M|g -0.564 (0.201) | -0.031 ± 0.065 [23/42] (0.423) r_M|g,F -0.568 (0.203) | -0.032 ± 0.066 [23/42] (0.426) r_F|g,M -0.087 (0.117) | -0.011 ± 0.025 [22/42] (0.163) 750 r_M|g -0.562 (0.212) | -0.041 ± 0.065 [25/42] (0.423) r_M|g,F -0.568 (0.212) | -0.044 ± 0.065 [25/42] (0.424) r_F|g,M -0.122 (0.130) | -0.012 ± 0.032 [21/42] (0.206) 1000 r_M|g -0.516 (0.261) | -0.055 ± 0.067 [23/42] (0.432) r_M|g,F -0.523 (0.257) | -0.059 ± 0.066 [24/42] (0.430) r_F|g,M -0.146 (0.137) | -0.013 ± 0.035 [24/42] (0.224) 1500 r_M|g -0.325 (0.301) | -0.070 ± 0.064 [25/42] (0.413) r_M|g,F -0.343 (0.294) | -0.074 ± 0.063 [25/42] (0.407) r_F|g,M -0.216 (0.147) | -0.026 ± 0.035 [26/42] (0.229) 2000 r_M|g -0.146 (0.333) | -0.006 ± 0.058 [17/42] (0.378) r_M|g,F -0.177 (0.323) | -0.010 ± 0.059 [20/42] (0.380) r_F|g,M -0.235 (0.156) | -0.018 ± 0.037 [25/42] (0.240) old 18: measure: matched mean (SD over starts) | mismatched mean ± error bar (SD) [below 0] C(T), given g: -0.2654 (0.143) | -0.0910 ± 0.0472 [12/18] (0.200) 5 r_M|g -0.324 (0.169) | -0.100 ± 0.055 [13/18] (0.233) r_M|g,F -0.330 (0.172) | -0.104 ± 0.056 [13/18] (0.239) r_F|g,M -0.071 (0.042) | -0.032 ± 0.015 [13/18] (0.062) 10 r_M|g -0.351 (0.181) | -0.108 ± 0.058 [13/18] (0.248) r_M|g,F -0.355 (0.182) | -0.111 ± 0.059 [13/18] (0.252) r_F|g,M -0.058 (0.037) | -0.027 ± 0.013 [14/18] (0.056) 25 r_M|g -0.399 (0.200) | -0.123 ± 0.063 [12/18] (0.268) r_M|g,F -0.402 (0.201) | -0.124 ± 0.064 [12/18] (0.272) r_F|g,M -0.050 (0.035) | -0.021 ± 0.014 [14/18] (0.058) 50 r_M|g -0.447 (0.221) | -0.139 ± 0.068 [12/18] (0.287) r_M|g,F -0.448 (0.221) | -0.140 ± 0.068 [12/18] (0.289) r_F|g,M -0.035 (0.038) | -0.012 ± 0.015 [12/18] (0.063) 100 r_M|g -0.493 (0.254) | -0.161 ± 0.071 [13/18] (0.299) r_M|g,F -0.493 (0.253) | -0.160 ± 0.071 [13/18] (0.300) r_F|g,M -0.016 (0.060) | +0.001 ± 0.019 [9/18] (0.082) 150 r_M|g -0.515 (0.261) | -0.179 ± 0.071 [15/18] (0.301) r_M|g,F -0.516 (0.260) | -0.176 ± 0.071 [14/18] (0.302) r_F|g,M -0.022 (0.074) | +0.009 ± 0.024 [10/18] (0.103) 200 r_M|g -0.529 (0.262) | -0.190 ± 0.071 [15/18] (0.303) r_M|g,F -0.531 (0.261) | -0.186 ± 0.071 [15/18] (0.303) r_F|g,M -0.030 (0.083) | +0.010 ± 0.028 [10/18] (0.120) 300 r_M|g -0.553 (0.256) | -0.204 ± 0.074 [15/18] (0.315) r_M|g,F -0.556 (0.254) | -0.197 ± 0.074 [15/18] (0.314) r_F|g,M -0.043 (0.097) | +0.000 ± 0.035 [10/18] (0.149) 400 r_M|g -0.567 (0.256) | -0.203 ± 0.079 [14/18] (0.335) r_M|g,F -0.571 (0.254) | -0.198 ± 0.078 [14/18] (0.331) r_F|g,M -0.058 (0.106) | -0.017 ± 0.040 [10/18] (0.168) 500 r_M|g -0.571 (0.261) | -0.196 ± 0.085 [14/18] (0.360) r_M|g,F -0.576 (0.259) | -0.193 ± 0.083 [14/18] (0.352) r_F|g,M -0.077 (0.108) | -0.035 ± 0.042 [11/18] (0.177) 750 r_M|g -0.549 (0.285) | -0.160 ± 0.096 [11/18] (0.408) r_M|g,F -0.558 (0.281) | -0.169 ± 0.092 [13/18] (0.392) r_F|g,M -0.121 (0.115) | -0.062 ± 0.043 [11/18] (0.183) 1000 r_M|g -0.488 (0.306) | -0.077 ± 0.099 [9/18] (0.421) r_M|g,F -0.503 (0.302) | -0.099 ± 0.095 [10/18] (0.403) r_F|g,M -0.174 (0.129) | -0.085 ± 0.044 [12/18] (0.187) 1500 r_M|g -0.152 (0.305) | +0.094 ± 0.085 [5/18] (0.361) r_M|g,F -0.200 (0.299) | +0.052 ± 0.082 [7/18] (0.349) r_F|g,M -0.247 (0.148) | -0.081 ± 0.046 [11/18] (0.195) 2000 r_M|g -0.030 (0.377) | +0.113 ± 0.093 [9/18] (0.394) r_M|g,F -0.076 (0.351) | +0.081 ± 0.090 [9/18] (0.383) r_F|g,M -0.213 (0.154) | -0.055 ± 0.046 [10/18] (0.195) d. Slow drift (new 42; old means after the bar) tau M|g M|g + trend M|g 1st half M|g 2nd half F|g,M F|g,M + trend F|g,M 1st half F|g,M 2nd half old: M|g + trend, F|g,M + trend 5 -0.314 ± 0.028 -0.239 ± 0.023 -0.262 ± 0.035 -0.275 ± 0.030 -0.067 ± 0.007 -0.056 ± 0.007 -0.068 ± 0.012 -0.057 ± 0.008 -0.263, -0.062 10 -0.340 ± 0.029 -0.262 ± 0.025 -0.285 ± 0.038 -0.304 ± 0.032 -0.055 ± 0.006 -0.048 ± 0.007 -0.061 ± 0.011 -0.047 ± 0.007 -0.290, -0.054 25 -0.384 ± 0.032 -0.303 ± 0.028 -0.332 ± 0.043 -0.354 ± 0.036 -0.048 ± 0.006 -0.046 ± 0.006 -0.063 ± 0.011 -0.043 ± 0.007 -0.343, -0.052 50 -0.428 ± 0.035 -0.347 ± 0.031 -0.386 ± 0.049 -0.405 ± 0.040 -0.038 ± 0.007 -0.043 ± 0.007 -0.060 ± 0.012 -0.040 ± 0.009 -0.402, -0.041 100 -0.480 ± 0.036 -0.399 ± 0.034 -0.443 ± 0.057 -0.464 ± 0.044 -0.029 ± 0.009 -0.041 ± 0.008 -0.051 ± 0.017 -0.035 ± 0.011 -0.472, -0.026 150 -0.503 ± 0.036 -0.428 ± 0.033 -0.465 ± 0.062 -0.491 ± 0.046 -0.041 ± 0.011 -0.052 ± 0.010 -0.063 ± 0.021 -0.051 ± 0.013 -0.512, -0.036 200 -0.517 ± 0.036 -0.451 ± 0.031 -0.483 ± 0.063 -0.500 ± 0.048 -0.050 ± 0.013 -0.062 ± 0.012 -0.070 ± 0.024 -0.066 ± 0.015 -0.537, -0.046 300 -0.540 ± 0.035 -0.494 ± 0.029 -0.516 ± 0.062 -0.511 ± 0.052 -0.066 ± 0.015 -0.080 ± 0.014 -0.084 ± 0.026 -0.081 ± 0.018 -0.581, -0.061 400 -0.557 ± 0.033 -0.531 ± 0.028 -0.549 ± 0.059 -0.533 ± 0.053 -0.075 ± 0.017 -0.089 ± 0.015 -0.101 ± 0.027 -0.089 ± 0.020 -0.615, -0.073 500 -0.564 ± 0.031 -0.551 ± 0.027 -0.574 ± 0.054 -0.543 ± 0.053 -0.087 ± 0.018 -0.099 ± 0.016 -0.117 ± 0.027 -0.097 ± 0.020 -0.633, -0.084 750 -0.562 ± 0.033 -0.584 ± 0.025 -0.571 ± 0.053 -0.563 ± 0.053 -0.122 ± 0.020 -0.120 ± 0.017 -0.146 ± 0.024 -0.122 ± 0.019 -0.643, -0.096 1000 -0.516 ± 0.040 -0.556 ± 0.032 -0.545 ± 0.059 -0.521 ± 0.056 -0.146 ± 0.021 -0.137 ± 0.018 -0.160 ± 0.025 -0.136 ± 0.020 -0.623, -0.125 1500 -0.325 ± 0.046 -0.352 ± 0.040 -0.366 ± 0.070 -0.279 ± 0.079 -0.216 ± 0.023 -0.205 ± 0.020 -0.175 ± 0.028 -0.148 ± 0.024 -0.223, -0.210 2000 -0.146 ± 0.051 -0.076 ± 0.063 -0.174 ± 0.085 -0.103 ± 0.077 -0.235 ± 0.024 -0.182 ± 0.019 -0.181 ± 0.033 -0.164 ± 0.021 -0.107, -0.155 M with W given g and F, with the trend: 5: -0.244 10: -0.265 25: -0.306 50: -0.349 100: -0.401 150: -0.431 200: -0.455 300: -0.499 400: -0.536 500: -0.557 750: -0.589 1000: -0.564 1500: -0.378 2000: -0.110 The run in 1,000-unit blocks (mean C; mean growth rate), averaged over starts: (0, 1000]: new C +0.02847 ± 0.00039, growth +0.00682 ± 0.00042; old C +0.02804, growth +0.00507 (1000, 2000]: new C +0.02372 ± 0.00072, growth +0.01464 ± 0.00059; old C +0.02154, growth +0.01225 (2000, 3000]: new C +0.02561 ± 0.00082, growth +0.01257 ± 0.00059; old C +0.02759, growth +0.01251 (3000, 4000]: new C +0.02381 ± 0.00056, growth +0.01432 ± 0.00063; old C +0.02440, growth +0.01508 (4000, 5000]: new C +0.02668 ± 0.00066, growth +0.01480 ± 0.00061; old C +0.02643, growth +0.01365 (5000, 6000]: new C +0.02509 ± 0.00077, growth +0.01270 ± 0.00062; old C +0.02585, growth +0.01501 e. Longer growth history (tau > 500): adding the growth over (T - tau, T - 500] to the controls tau M|g M|g + longer growth F|g,M F|g,M + longer growth old: last two 750 -0.5617 ± 0.0328 -0.5119 ± 0.0370 -0.1222 ± 0.0200 -0.1237 ± 0.0209 -0.465, -0.126 1000 -0.5157 ± 0.0403 -0.4270 ± 0.0467 -0.1461 ± 0.0211 -0.1515 ± 0.0220 -0.350, -0.169 1500 -0.3249 ± 0.0465 -0.2410 ± 0.0536 -0.2162 ± 0.0226 -0.1909 ± 0.0220 -0.055, -0.236 2000 -0.1464 ± 0.0514 -0.1946 ± 0.0549 -0.2351 ± 0.0241 -0.2040 ± 0.0203 -0.063, -0.189 H5. Every window, band and control that was run is reported above, nulls and contradictions included. No window is singled out: the strongest one is not used for anything, and no threshold was tuned here. H6. WHAT THE SAVED DATA CANNOT RESOLVE 1. Whether coherence history is a cause. Every history comparison here is between moments that differ naturally. No saved run changed coherence over a stretch of time (the cause test changed it at one instant), so 'history drives later growth' cannot be told apart from 'a slow hidden state drives both'. 2. What M_tau stands for physically. The saved runs keep only each group's z = R e^(i psi) at every time unit, not the oscillators' phases, so no frequency-resolved measure can be computed (for example, how the slow, nearly locked oscillators are arranged). 3. The higher harmonics over time and their phases: only |z2|, |z3|, |z4| at the moments were saved. 4. The gap's direction: only its growth was saved, so whether the carried gap's alignment carries part of the link, or of the cause test's delayed effects, cannot be checked. That needs a fresh gap. 5. Anything later than 500 units after a moment: the branches stop at T + 500. 6. Dose against level: each pulse was +-50% of the level at that moment, so the two cannot be separated. 7. Other settings: one coupling (K = 1.90, just below the threshold), one N and one eps. Whether the role of history depends on the distance from the threshold is unknown here. 8. The window-response curve describes these runs. Its shape, or the window where it is strongest, is not an estimate of a physical memory time. Changes after the first run: none